New CLE OC Todd Monken ranks 5th on the main slate in terms of historical regulation plays run per game, 3rd in regulation pass plays run per game, and first in ADOT and air yards per game. Our play count projection model projects CLE to throw for the most air yards on the main slate.
In November & December of 2018, Baker Mayfield outperformed comparably priced QBs in DKP/dropback.
Chris Carson & Kerryon Johnson both figure to have good game script, SEA & DET are currently projected to run the 3rd and 5th most run plays by our predictive model. BAL & BUF projected to run most, but both have pretty murky backfield situations, DAL backfield muddied (as of now) by Zeke holdout.
Over the past 4 years, no OC has run more run plays per game than SEA OC Brian Schottenheimer. New DET OC Darrell Bevell has typically run a slow-paced offense, that tends to skew towards run-heavy.
BAL projects to run a lot of run plays, Mark Ingram or Lamar Jackson could be enticing volume plays.
I feel like between Ingram/Kamara, Ingram got the reputation as the guy that benefited the most as a “goal line back” - but it was actually Kamara that benefited the most, Ingram’s DKP/non-RZ was comparable to Kamara’s last year, and he actually outperformed Kamara in the second half of the season in this stat. A little unclear what the BAL division of carries will look like, but if Ingram has a close-to-feature-back role he could be in for big game.
If BAL keeps similar gameplan, Jackson should figure to get about a third of designed run plays, based on our projections that’s about 10 carries by design, and with an average of 0.7 DKP/touch, it’s easy to build a 6-7 DKP floor into Jackson’s projections.
PHI an intriguing pass stack, they currently project as our 2nd most probable team to top the slate in team points scored, near the top in terms of projected pass plays.
What makes PHI pass attack tough is they’re not super condensed, and they’ve added air yards monster in DeSean Jackson. Ertz and Jeffry receive largest target share (Ertz with huge 27% Total MS and 34% RZ MS, both 3rd among Sunday main flex plays) - figure to be most conventional stack.
More creative options would be Jackson on air yards upside or even Sproles with respectable 17% RZ MS (although this could be reduced due to Miles Sanders)
ATL projects to run second most pass plays, could be good stacking opportunity - new OC Dirk Koetter skews towards a pass-heavy attack historically.
Tevin Coleman accounted for a relevant 15% of RZ targets, so someone will have to replace this void. Julio obviously has big play upside, but I do think draws a fairly tough matchup.
I think Austin Hooper is a guy that could get lost in the shuffle at TE, he did lead the Falcons in RZ target MS last year, that number could go up with Coleman out.
Or, Devonta Freeman could be a fine play if you expect him to consume some of Coleman’s RZ pass-catching role.
I might be a little hesitant to play Hooper and Julio together, their target MS seems to have some negative correlation.
I don’t think there is much we can do with IND, even though they are projected to throw the 5th most pass attempts on the main slate, with pass heavy OC Sirianni.
Brissett/Hoyer’s DKP/Dropback is so bad, even with high volume their efficiency is lacking
HOWEVER, I do think we can take advantage of this on the defensive side with LAC D/ST. Brissett took a sack on 9% of his dropbacks dating back to 2016.
BUF projects to run the 5th most run plays and towards the middle of the pack in pass plays and air yards. It’s hard to trust any BUF RB at this point, I expect a committee, but it could be a good environment to fire up naked Josh Allen.
Of QBs priced near Allen, only Wentz averaged more DKP/Dropback last year (and including this preseason to consider Kyler Murray) than Allen.
Of Allen’s passing options, there’s two guys I want to consider most: John Brown & Zay Jones. Brown for his deep ball threat (33% of Air Yards MS with BAL last year, likely to fill Robert Foster role from last year). Jones for his wopping 40% MS or redzone targets last year
Very high on LAR stack, they now project to run the most pass plays on the main slate. Not the most condensed receiver distribution.
I love Brandin Cooks in cash, the guy receives targets so consistently on a week to week basis, feels like he has a very high floor
I like Cooper Kupp as a GPP play, his high per-touch attempt efficiency and RZ target share give him some pop but less stability.
Also, Todd Gurley is tied for team lead in RZ MS, plus has the rushing TD equity that no other receivers have. If he is indeed a full go he makes a TON of sense in GPPs given his deflated price tag.
LAC projects for 3rd most run plays, with Melvin Gordon out Austin Ekeler is mispriced for his role.
Ekeler had a better DKP/Non-RZ touch attempt and comparable DKP/Tch attempt to Melvin Gordon, whose 62% Rush Att MS will be absent in
Love Samuel and dj moore upside in the offense because funchess is gone and there are not many additions on the offensive side of the ball. That leaves tons of opportunity for Moore and Samuel to increase their market share.
Funchess lead CAR WRs/TEs in target, air yards, and redzone market share, leaves a pretty big void in receiving corp. Chris Hogan should fill some of void, but not completely.
Curtis Samuel was one of CAR’s more efficient DKP/Tch receivers, and that metric is probably deflated due his role in the running game (which generally yields fewer DKP, fewer yards associated, no 1pt reception bonus).
SF & TB both have top-10 probabilities of being top-scoring team on slate. Only game in which both teams have significant top-scoring potential.
TB OC Leftwitch ranks 5th among main slate OCs in pass plays run per game. TB HC Arians ranks 5th among main slate HCs in pass plays run per game.